A Surprising Backthrough

The most important feature of the tentative arrangement with North Korea is North Korea's diplomacy. North Korea is, as always, a small cockroach living next door to a giant, fire-breathing dragon. Perhaps that is why Dear Leader huffs and puffs so hard: by seeming larger, he hopes not to be squashed or burned. And, that might explain his desperate efforts to draw in the Americans: get the fire-breathing dragon down the block at loggerheads with the one next door. In the melee, Kim Jong Il hopes they will seek advantage by currying his favor. Is that delusional? Maybe not. While Dear Leader has been regularly denounced, minimized and scoffed in the media, it is slowly coming to light that the man is well educated and not crazy. He is most reminiscent of Josef Stalin who, readers will remember, managed to stay on top until his death in his own bed of natural causes (stroke). Intelligent and level-headed leaders are the most dangerous kind, especially when they have no scruples whatsoever. (Note implicit comparison to Bandit.)

The present proposal is mostly the result of Chinese efforts, possibly aided by the weakness Washington brought on itself. What has transpired with North Korea shows that diplomatically engaging hostile powers is not always without reward, contrary to the philosophy espoused by Washington's neo-conservatives. Those politicians learned the lesson of Munich too well, and, like sophomores everywhere, go about applying it everywhere as the final truth of the world. As wiser people know, there are many deeper insight and refinements to be learned in the upper division courses, which modify the application of basic lessons. In the present circumstances, pre-emptive military confrontation has had disastrous results in the Middle East, and no results at all in the Far East. Actually, Americans might consider themselves lucky there have been no results in places like North Korea, for the alternative might have been nuclear war. Avoidance of that ultimate calamity is thanks to the Chinese, with the assistance of Russian and Japanese diplomats. The United States, until recently guided by the war hawks, has either been on the sidelines or sometimes a road block.

In the event, all that has been achieved, as indicated in NYT, is somewhat less than the bargain the Clinton Administration made with North Korea in 1994. That agreement provided North Korea with food, fuel and other necessities in exchange for U.N. oversight of Korea's nuclear facilities. The United States also agreed to install light water fission reactors for electricity production in replacement of other types of reactors that can produce weapons grade materials (e.g., plutonium). But, the U.S. dragged its feet on providing the reactors, partly because of American suspicions of North Korean cheating. In 2001, the Bandit labeled North Korea one of the "Axis of Evil" and abandoned altogether the 1994 agreement. Whereas the Clinton policy forced the North Koreans to be surreptitious in their efforts to obtain nuclear weapons, the Bandit's policy encouraged a speed-up and removal of international inspection by the U.N. IEAE. So, the world is worse off for the wear. Washington's influence is in decline, thanks to the tear.

China is on a roll, possibly because the leadership is stoked up by hosting the 2008 Beijing Olympics, which is being mercilessly used to present China as the leading Asian, maybe world, power. If the United States is the sole remaining superpower, those now enjoying the Mandate of Heaven are making the "superpower" concept irrelevant by once again putting The Middle Kingdom at the center of things. It is the Chinese who are making arrangements with Saudi Arabia and African States aimed at securing needed supplies of oil and minerals. It is the Chinese who have made the One China Policy a major feature of every agreement they sign, even obscure agreements to buy some remote farmer's peanuts or cashews. It is the Chinese who have had a steady flow of State visitors landing in Beijing, each and all of whom are feted at great expense to show themselves as friends of the Chinese people. These days, Beijing is a very different kind of place than Washington. It is as if Mao and the Gang of Four were booted out of Heaven, only to land on Pennsylvania Ave., thus completely to reverse the traditions of nearly a century. Add to this the record-breaking U.S. trade deficit, featuring China as America's main benefactor (creditor). How an anyone doubt the baton is being passed?

It remains to be seen what will happen on account of this latest whispering among those negotiating North Korea's fate. One thing is clear: China is in the driver's seat. The United States, Japan and South Korea are tied together in the back seat, and can only grumble and moan about the careening and swerving along the way. What is most disconcerting is how much the Bandit accomplished in just six years.