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Introduction
B+ STATE OF THE PLANET: 2006-2007 Donald Kennedy et al, ed. Science American Association for the Advancement of Science Washington: Island Press 2006

Disclosure: I am a member of AAAS, and generally endorse the content of this book.

Just published: a compilation of reasonably non-technical articles from the pages of Science on a very hot issue: our global environment. This easy to read paperback summarizes the consensus of knowledge among leading scientists on crucial issues. Donald Kennedy, Editor in Chief of Science, wrote introductions to the various sections of the book which highlight the important issues.

The clear purpose of this edition is to familiarize the general public with what scientists know and believe about population, resources, the environment and the interaction of people with Nature. This book aims to counter the political propaganda of the last few years which confuses people about the actual state of affairs. Scientists are, by and large, notoriously gun shy when it comes to politics (this writer excepted), so all of the reports have been considerably toned down from what the writers might believe privately. On the surface, the facts presented and conclusions drawn are conservative and sound. Nonetheless, reading between the lines will reveal the large number of conflicts scientific workers have with the present Administration and corporate entities. Near the end, the tone does become somewhat shrill, although nowhere near the ear-piercing jet engine screams generated at L&F.

It is worth learning the key terms defined and explained in sidebars throughout the book. All of the issues in this book are commonly discussed by experts, politicians and bureaucrats in those key terms, which often leaves the lay public mystified and uninformed. Endangered species, for example, is a technical matter, not just an innate attraction to fuzzy-furry things. The types of capital discussed in Jules Pretty's article (pp. 142 ff.) are explained in the table on p. 143. One of those is Social Capital, which includes "norms, values, and attitudes that predispose people to cooperate; relations of trust, reciprocity, and obligations; and common rules and sanctions mutually agreed or handed down."

One must first understand the nature of social capital in order to realize one of the great problems of modern societies is how fast it is being destroyed. The lack of social capital stands in the way of solving our global, environmental problems.

On pp. 172 ff., you will find "The Challenge of Long-Term Climate Change." On p. 173, several graphs are presented which should be carefully studied. What they show is global climate change well underway, and an inevitable temperature increase of about 3^o C. That is what happens in one of the best cases. You probably don't want to think about the worst case, although I mentioned it the other day. (Please recall Steven Chu's lecture on UC-TV.)

Here's the brickbat: Even if people stopped putting greenhouse gases into the atmosphere today, this very hour, global climate change will continue for the next couple of centuries. We've already done it to ourselves.

This book is far more disturbing than Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth. Mr. Gore, to his credit, is trying to sell an important idea to an indolent and disbelieving public; still, what he is selling is pabulum. To solve the problems, people will indeed have to stop eating their sugar frosted flakes. The scientific question at hand is not whether there is global climate change, but whether it is reversible. If it is reversible, it will take centuries of carbon forbearance to accomplish it. If it is not reversible, if runaway global climate change occurs, Gaia will hand Homo sapiens a most unpleasant flogging, possibly for millennia.

The book starts with the underlying problem: human population growth. However, unlike this writer, most everyone is truly afraid of doing what must be done. Thus, even this AAAS book soft peddles the fact it states: Earth is over populated. It looks like, given a moderate growth scenario, we are going to have 9 billion people on this planet by 2050. That 50% growth is dwarfed by the doubling likely to occur if energetic measures are not taken to restrict births. We all know what the measures are, and they are mentioned in the book. But, we haven't had a government willing to tackle any part of the problem in the last quarter century. We've never had a government willing to take the severe measures actually required to stop population growth, except in China.

I find it appalling that Earth's human population has almost tripled in my lifetime. We last had a possibly sustainable population around 1950. I am slightly relieved that the demographers advise we have about a century or so (3-4 generations) to get the population down to supportable. If we don't do that, it's over the cliff.

In reviewing GSQ, there was some controversy about the Tragedy of the Commons. Garrett Hardin's orginal 1968 article, updated, is republished herein. Everyone should read this book, if only to understand the scenario Hardin invented. There are various reactions to the Tragedy in this book. Conservatives have latched onto Hardin's argument, turned it into Moral Hazard, and used it as a lethal weapon to beat opponents to death. I, of course, have a different take on the Tragedy which is touched on in some of this book's commentaries.

I think this is an important book, a handy reference. Anyone concerned with the issues it covers should be familiar with its contents. Those whose heads have been set spinning by propaganda are especially in need of this work to establish terra firma.

State of the Planet