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The New York Times published the following summary of a report in PNAS about climate change.

 

Study Finds Climate Shift Threatens California

 

By DEAN E. MURPHY
Published: August 17, 2004

 

SAN FRANCISCO, Aug. 16 - A scientific study released on Monday presents an alarming view of climate changes in California, finding that by the end of the century rising temperatures could lead to a sevenfold increase in heat-related deaths in Los Angeles and imperil the state's wine and dairy industries.

 

The study, published in the online version of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, offers the most detailed projection yet of changes in California as temperatures rise around the world because of building concentrations of heat-trapping gases.

 

Under one of two scenarios, in which fossil fuel use continues at its present pace, the study determined that summertime high temperatures could increase by 15 degrees in some inland cities, putting their climate on par with that of Death Valley now. That scenario also foresaw a reduction of 73 percent to 90 percent in the snow pack in the Sierra Nevada, resulting in disrupted water supplies from the San Francisco Bay Area to the Central Valley.

 

Even in the second scenario, which assumed significant increases in the use of renewable energy like wind and solar power, the study concluded that fossil fuel emissions could push average high temperatures up by four to six degrees - the difference, one author said, between the temperature in Yosemite National Park and downtown Sacramento.

...

 

Several of the scientists warned against dismissing the findings as overstated. "We have been studying this for 30 years, and the conclusions are getting increasingly clear, and increasingly consistent," said Dr. Stephen H. Schneider, a climate scientist at Stanford. He added, "We think this problem has too high a chance of happening and in negative incarnations for us to ignore it."

 

 

NYT must have an advance copy, as the PNAS study is not yet available online.

 

Readers should keep in mind that the Proceedings often contains speculative articles which are not thoroughly peer reviewed. Since the article  is not yet available, I am not sure how reviewed the findings are. Nonetheless, this serves as yet another warning in a long string of warnings that climate change will have dramatic and probably irreversible results. If any of the scenarios developed by the authors materialize, California will be severely impacted. For example, the Sacramento area - where I live - will become an nearly unlivable desert due to lack of water and excessive heat.

 

There are a couple of different outcomes for California, depending on what happens to the jet streams as the climate warms up. It is possible, for example, that the Sacramento area would actually cool down and get wetter, if the jet stream wiggles around so as to draw in air from the Bay Area. This already happens during the winter and off-and-on during the summer, which is why Sacramento means "sacred wind."

 

If, however, the Bay Area layers are prevented from traveling into the Central Valley, summer temperatures will easily rise to 115-120° or more. This will destroy most agriculture during the summer. As it stands, most of California has 3 growing seasons, so the excessive heat would destroy one, thereby reducing production dramatically.  Since the most nutritious crops grow in cooler weather, this would more than proportionately reduce the nutritional value of the crop.

 

Right now, we have a drought which allows one to see how things might be with less water. This encourages the idea of investing in the farther North Coast, areas like Eureka and Crescent City, where there is a lot more water. However, that could change, depending on what happens during the winter monsoons in a warmer climate. The North Coast depends on river water originating far inland, such as the Klamath River which starts in the eastern Oregon desert.

 

The Spanish gave a prophetic name to the State: California means "hot oven." Most Californians are very sensitive about their environment. Now, it looks like they will need to turn up the political heat to prevent being burned out of house and home.

 

August 17, 2004

Last update: 11/13/2007

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