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CANDIDATES ON 5 BIG PROMISES
as of Friday, January 16, 2004
First off, I am not surprised to have received absolutely nothing from most of the campaigns. Candidates and campaigns just don't bother with ordinary people, except in Iowa and New Hampshire. Elsewhere and otherwise, it is just wholesale politics. I suppose this is preparation for governing and large and diverse country, where everything has to be averaged out.
Campaigns, government and corporations simply don't have time for individuals, or even small groups. That is why and how money becomes a proxy for attention.
Despite my expectations, I did receive a note from Dean for America and a lengthy e-mail from the Kucinich campaign. I include these for your review, and my comments below.
Please recall the 5 BIG PROMISES concern PEACE, PROSPERITY, RESPONSIBILITY, FULFILLMENT and DEMOCRACY.
From the Kucinich Campaign ...
Received Jan 15, 2004
Julia S. Prange
National Issues Coordinator
Dennis Kucinich For President 2004
1-866-413-3664
fax: (216) 251-5974
Thank you for sending us your inquiry regarding the "Five Big Promises" to focus on in 2004. After reading through your ideas, I hope you are familiar with Dennis Kucinich and his message for this election, as the ideas you present are exactly identical to those most central to this campaign. In response to your letter, I have crafted the following, in hopes that you will appreciate and spread Dennis' vision for a new America:
PEACE: Dennis Kucinich is the strongest advocate in the race for a renewed committment to peace and diplomacy. He is the only candidate to have voted against the Iraq war, is the only candidate with a plan to get US troops out of Iraq (within 90 days) and replace them with UN peacekeepers. Kucinich understands the dangerous position US unilateralism has brought us to today, and believes it is crucial for the US to rejoin the world community, to work cooperatively with the United Nations. The United States must affirm principles of sustainability as well as recognize and promote international cooperation and agreements. We must affirm and ratify treaties beginning with:
The Kyoto Treaty on Global Climate Change.
The Biodiversity Treaty.
The Forest Protection Treaty.
The Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty.
The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty.
The Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty.
The Landmine Ban Treaty.
The Biological Weapons Convention.
The Chemical Weapons Convention.
The International Criminal Court.
Our country and all nations must review and modify all treaties which reject national sovereignty in the cause of a global corporate ethic which does not respect human rights, workers rights and environmental quality standards. This means reviewing the practices and the practical impact of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, the World Trade Organization, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Bank.
PROSPERITY: The restoration of the rights of workers in America and throughout the North American continent will begin when we repeal NAFTA. NAFTA has spurred a $418 billion trade deficit, costing 525,000 jobs, most of them in manufacturing.
This is called free trade. But where is freedom when jobs are lost? Where is freedom when industries threaten to move out of the country unless wages are cut? Where is freedom when the right to bargain collectively is crushed? Where is freedom when a union is broken? Where is freedom when you can't make a mortgage payment? Where is freedom when you can't send your children to college? An economic democracy is a precondition of a political democracy. Where is freedom?
The first thing Kucinich will do as President will be to begin the process of repealing NAFTA and withdrawing from the WTO. He will then replace them with bi-lateral fair trade agreements that contain provision for workers' rights, human rights, and environmental principles.
Putting decent wages in the hands of those who need the money is a far surer way to boost an economy than giving tax breaks to those with more money than they know what to do with. And the living wage movement of the past decade has added more evidence to the already solid documentation that adjusting the minimum wage upward along with inflation does not cause unemployment.
Kucinich also believes all Americans are entitled to earn a living wage. He says: "I will make it a top priority to restore the value of the federal minimum wage, bringing it up to at least its 1968 level and indexing it to automatically keep pace with the cost of living. This will allow some workers to quit their second or third jobs and spend more time with their families.
"I will combine this with the creation of a truly universal single-payer health care system, universal free preschool, free college tuition at state colleges and universities, a public jobs program to restore our infrastructure, and withdrawal from NAFTA and the WTO in favor of bilateral trade pacts that protect workers' rights here and abroad. This platform will transform the lives of working people, and without the efforts of working people who have made the living wage an issue, this would not be possible."
RESPONSIBILITY: No other candidate will provide more affirmation of America's promise of support for its citizens than Dennis Kucinich. He will establish streamlined national health insurance to cover the needs of every American, regardless of age or financial status. This plan, comprehensive enhanced "Medicare for All", will be privately delivered, publicly financed, and will put people, not corporations, in charge of health care. Coverage will be more complete than private insurance plans, encourage prevention and include prescription drugs, dental care, mental health care, and alternative medicine.
Dennis Kucinich will return the retirement age to 65 and will see that Social Security is never put in the hands of the volatile stock market through private accounts.
All children will have access to universal pre-kindergarten through college, and will receive quality education with skilled teachers who emphasize creative, critical thinking more than test-taking.
FULFILLMENT: Civil rights are human rights. Under a Kucinich Administration, no form of discrimination will be tolerated. Affirmative Action will be preserved, the racially and socio-economically biased death penalty will be abolished as will the so-called war on drugs, and all human beings will have the right to marry their loved one, regardless of sexual orientation.
DEMOCRACY: The Bush Administration has declared war on the middle class, and taken a habit to feeding off of those with the least money. Dennis Kucinich has introduced a bill that creates a more fair, simple, and adequate tax system. The Progressive Tax Act of 2003 gives $87 billion per year to people with modest income and families in the middle class. The bill collects an additional $107 billion per year from the Bush tax cuts, corporate tax loopholes, and other tax giveaways. The bill therefore raises a sum total of $20 billion per year that remains available for deficit reduction or new spending.
"Our tax system is in need of desperate repair," said Kucinich. "Tax cuts to the wealthiest one percent of Americans do not create jobs and do not increase wages for working people. The only way to real economic strength and security is to provide real tax relief to those who need it most, workers and families. This bill enables real economic growth and progressive tax reform while providing fiscal responsibility."
For more information on Dennis Kucinich's vision to take back America, see www.kucinich.us.
Thank you.
In Peace,
Julia Prange
So far, I have NOT received an OFFICIAL REPLY from the campaign. I did receive on Monday, January 5, 2004, junk mail from Dean For America (DFA) asking for money.
I received the following undated handwritten message from Martha Perkins, DFA:
Received Jan 10, 2004
"Dear Walter, Thank you for your recent letter. Your "five Big Promises" are indeed fine statements and objectives. I will pass them on. Stay with us! We need you!"
I take it this means Martha Perkins read my letter.
This signed message was mailed Monday, January 5, 2004. It was handwritten onto the Dean campaign's standard acknowledgement letter, which includes the phrases, "Although we receive too much mail to answer every piece individually ..." and "All the correspondence ... is read and summarized for my review on a weekly basis."
About the Democratic Candidates ...
I am very sympathetic with Kucinich's views of the issues. But, he hasn't caught on among Democrats. Carol Moseley-Braun dropped out and endorsed Dean. Al Sharpton is on his own trip. "Holy Joe" Lieberman is in the low digits, probably for being "Bush-Lite."
That leaves this week's top 5, who are going at it tooth and nail. Blood has been drawn; ego prevails. One of Dean, Clark, Kerry, Edwards or Gephardt will survive the battle, hopefully in some kind of shape to challenge the President, King George (see below). Somehow, I don't think Edwards or Gephardt can survive Iowa and New Hampshire, and I doubt Kerry survives South Carolina. So, in a few weeks, I suppose the horse race will be down to Dean and Clark.
Whoever wins, I hope it will be soon. If the candidates exhaust their funds, volunteers and voter patience before George Bush gets around to them, it won't matter. George is the ultimate victor in "Divide and Conquer." Democrats must decide on one nominee very soon, and stick with it.
I'm not known for being a great Team Player, but this time is different for any number of reasons. George Bush has already amassed $130 million of them, over twice what all the Democrats have put together. The only chance a Democrat has in this merciless 2004 Logan's Run is to be The One. And, if you are The One, be prepared to get sacrificed in the end, like the Corn King of Pagan days. I don't know why anyone would take the job, but they're after it. Even if you like them, they are all egomaniacs far beyond Walter's proportions (taking myself as the local reference for that purpose).
Here, I reiterate my endorsement of Gov Howard Dean, MD. I would have you note that Senators, Generals, Congressmen and the inexperienced rarely or never get elected President. The office seems historically promotional, most often going to a Vice President or Governor; i.e., someone with direct executive experience. The only qualifying Democratic candidate is Gov Dean.
I think, with the consensus, that Gen Clark is the anti-Dean candidate. If he becomes the nominee, I think he cannot win against George Bush, either in spite of, or because of, backing by Clinton Democrats. My reasons for this negativism are:
1. The Clark campaign has accepted Federal spending limits, so can never hope to compete with the Bush Campaign.
2. Clark has support in the wrong States - States that belong to George Bush - while being weak in Democratic strongholds. In this election, it's all about collecting your "base" on Election Day and winning in a few contested States. Gen Clark would be helpful in some contested States, but might be a loser in several "leaning Democrat" States, like Oregon and Nevada. In the contested industrial heartland, Ohio and Pennsylvania, his lack of well known economic credentials does not help the Democratic cause.`
3. Whoever wins, if not Dean, will necessarily break down the best Democratic campaign organization in this election. Dr Dean has amassed more credentials, money, endorsements, volunteers and - best of all - enthusiasm and determination than all the other Democrats. While some of the money and endorsements would probably go to another victor, a lot of it would just stay home. That's because Dean's campaign is a "movement" phenomenon, not the work of dedicated political hacks.
4. Dean has set the agenda of this election from the get-go. He determined the issues and the style, and all the others followed - even George Bush. Dean made Iowa and New Hampshire important. Dean made the Internet into a political machine. Dean pioneered the
Bushattitude: "Take back America". None of the other candidates invent a unique and different campaign style, or energizes the issues, as Dr Dean does. Dr Dean showed the way; Gen Clark and the others won't inherit much if they remove him from the campaign.
So, I think Dr Dean is the only Democrat who can beat George Bush next November. That is what needs to be done; that is what I say, and that is where I am putting my money.
How about you?
Where We Stand
The Wall St Journal released its WSJ/Harris Poll today, at the beginning of an important political year. I feel it is a dispiriting poll, but, then, so is most of the news I read in WSJ. Ignoring my feelings, here is a summary of the poll, which we can use as a benchmark for the 2004 election.
The Saddam Blip
It is about over, as expected. December polls showed a surge of support for the President and Republican policies, generally. About 18-20% of the population changed their attitude from negative to positive about the Iraq War. Now things are going back to where they were.
For example, the right/wrong direction question, which had been running about 40% for 6 months, blipped up to 56% on Dec 14, 2003. Since then, it declined to 47%, and 43% believe things are headed in the wrong direction.
For this reason, I ignore the December 14 polling data as an "outlier;" a data point unrepresentative of the trend. Please note the margin of error (MOE) is 3.1%, so a 47/43 split is essentially an even division.
The President
As almost always, the election is the President's to lose. About 54% approve of the President, just 2-3% more than Hussein's capture.
On specifics, 49% approve of Bush's handling of the economy, 45% don't.
Support for Bush's handling of the Middle East remains above the low levels of last Fall. 54% approve of Bush's foreign policy, 41% don't. 63% approve of Bush's war on terrorism, and 31% don't. It appears Americans associate Saddam Hussein's capture with winning the war in Iraq last Spring, as level of support in the two cases are similar.
Overall, 51% of those polled believe George Bush should be re-elected, whereas 42% disagree. This corresponds pretty well with Bush's 55/37 positive/negative scores, leaving only 8% indifferent. That is, George Bush has divided people into pros and cons, with very few undecided.
In contrast, Gen Clark +/- score is 27/19, and fully 33% have no opinion. Dr Dean has higher negatives at 27/34, and a lower 19% having no opinion. The other Democratic candidates have negatives under 30%, so Dr Dean, like George Bush, is a polarizing figure.
When asked about their likely November votes, 34% will definitely vote for Bush, and 15% more probably will vote that way. 22% will vote for any Democrat, and another 17% are likely to do so. Altogether, that's 49:39 in favor if Bush, which roughly agrees with pro/con Bush scores.
In candidate match-ups, Bush beats Dean 54:37, Gephardt 55:34, Clark 53:35, and Kerry 54:35. So, there's some mobility in favor of Bush when specific names are tossed up. All of the numbers are so close as to suggest that specific Democrats are equivalent to a generic Democrat; i.e., the candidates have not yet differentiated themselves.
The Polled
85% of those polled were registered voters, but only 41% voted every election. 19% were strong Democrats, and 20% were strong Republicans. 9% each characterized themselves as "not strong" Republicans or Democrats. Among "independents," 11% lean Democrat and 9% lean Republican. This totals up to 39% Democrat and 38% Republican, or evenly split.
Those defining themselves as "strictly independent" are just 15% of the population. These are the people who will decide the election.
What we don't know from these data is who will vote. It is likely, however, that those claiming to be "strong" partisans will vote. For the rest, Republicans are more intense and vote more often than Democrats. Independents often don't vote. This gives Republicans a significant edge in turnout on Election Day.
Specific Issues
The top 6 issues are: the economy (45%), health care costs (29%), terrorism (25%), Iraq (15%), Social Security (14%) and the budget deficit (13%). The deficit is a recently re-discovered concern. Terrorism is a declining issue, whereas health care is rising.
On the whole, Americans are far more interested in domestic issues, and the impact of foreign affairs at home (terrorism), not Iraq (foreign policy). This correlates with the increasing sense that Americans believe the war in Iraq is over as a result of Saddam Hussein's capture. It appears most Americans aren't interested in what the Bush Administration does overseas, as long as it doesn't affect them.
Despite the low interest in the budget deficit, 60% of those polled think recent tax cuts should be cancelled. Only 21% think spending should be reduced.
In general, most people feel Democrats handle domestic issues better than Republicans, but give Republicans the edge in handling the military and foreign policy. This has been the case for many years. The surprise is that, in this poll, Democrats have no advantage in dealing with the economy, taxes, or government spending. (This, despite the recent Clinton Administration record.)
The Starting Gate
There is no doubt, right now, the 2004 Election begins with Advantage Bush. The President's re-elect numbers probably fairly represent that advantage, about 51:42, or 55 out of 100. While this is as good as, or better than, other recent Presidents seeking re-election, Bush does not have a lock on the office.
The Electoral College selects the President, not the popular vote, as we learned in 2000. My count is this: each side has about 230-240 electoral votes; they're even. This is the result of the dedicated Democrat and Republican vote, which is also distributed into Democrat and Republican States.
We have become two societies, two cultures, not one, which compete for advantage, benefits, and control of the national government. Control of the Federal apparatus is now seen as a zero sum game. In my opinion, this division has never been greater than since the 1850s, just before the Civil War.
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I am a partisan in this election with a lot at stake. This is not a run-of-the-mill election. The issues at stake are fundamental, Constitutional.
If Bush wins, it will be the end of the New Deal and everything that fell out from the New Deal. This will turn the United States into a Third World country, not the land of the middle class. Of course, the wealthy and those advantaged by such a change scoff at my suggestion. But, the catcalls and scoffing are only intended to cover up the reality of the Bush agenda, or to make you feel less threatened.
Don't be gulled: Please check it out for yourself. Bush, for example, has already said Social Security "reform" is on the agenda this election.
If a Democrat is elected, we will at least preserve our traditional system; i.e., what has become traditional since the New Deal.
That is what this election is all about. It's the most important election in American history since 1932. You are about to make an irreversible lifetime choice, like giving in to cancer or getting cured.
January 16, 2004
Last update: 11/13/2007
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